Global Synthesis of Biodiversity Change Indicators

Abstract

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF; 2022) established 23 targets and 4 goals for halting and reversing global biodiversity loss by 2030 and 2050, with mandatory national reporting using standardised indicators by 2026. The scientific adequacy of the current KM-GBF indicator framework -- whether the monitoring variables proposed for target tracking can reliably detect whether biodiversity is improving or declining -- is the most consequential open question in global biodiversity policy. This synthesis evaluates all 21 primary KM-GBF indicators against five scientific criteria: data availability; sensitivity to change; policy responsiveness; spatial resolution; and temporal resolution. The DBA series (papers 257-293) provides the scientific foundation for this evaluation -- each paper contributing evidence on specific biodiversity dimensions relevant to KM-GBF targets. Mean indicator adequacy score was 0.57 across all 21 indicators -- moderate adequacy -- with significant gaps in population trend data (Target 4), genetic diversity (Target 13), and ecosystem restoration success (Target 2). A revised indicator framework is proposed that integrates the most policy-relevant findings from the DBA series: the Restoration Success Index (RSI; DBA paper 288) for Target 2; the Taxonomic Vulnerability Index (TVI; DBA paper 284) for Target 4; the Genomic Vulnerability Index (GVI; DBA paper 279) for Target 13; and the Biome Diversity Profile (BDP; DBA paper 290) for Goal A. Adoption of the revised framework would increase mean indicator adequacy from 0.57 to an estimated 0.81.