Climate-Driven Range Shifts in Himalayan Endemic Mammals

Abstract

Climate change is reorganising the geographic distributions of mountain-adapted mammals at rates unprecedented in the Holocene, yet quantitative projections of range shifts for Himalayan endemics remain sparse relative to those for
temperate zone fauna. This study modelled present and future climatically suitable habitat for eight Himalayan endemic mammal species — Panthera uncia, Naemorhedus goral, Moschus chrysogaster, Hemitragus jemlahicus, Tetracerus
quadricornis, Capricornis sumatraensis, Budorcas taxicolor, and Pseudois nayaur— using ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) combining MaxEnt, Random Forest, and Boosted Regression Trees under three CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for the 2050 and 2070 time horizons. A total of 14,842 occurrence records from GBIF, camera trap surveys, and published atlases were curated and spatially thinned to one record per 5 km grid cell. Ensemble model performance was strong (mean AUC = 0.91 ± 0.03; TSS = 0.78 ± 0.04). Under SSP5-8.5 by 2070, all eight species projected net range contractions averaging 38.4 ± 6.2% relative to baseline suitable area, with upslope shifts in range centroid of 184 ± 42 m and northward displacement of 62 ± 18 km. Panthera uncia
showed the most severe projected loss (54.2% reduction; suitable area below 22,400 km2 by 2070 under SSP5-8.5). Range gain in newly climatically suitable high-altitude areas partially offset losses for five species under SSP1-2.6, but offset was negligible under SSP5-8.5 due to summit trap dynamics. Protected area coverage of projected future ranges declined from 31.4% to 18.7% under the high-emission scenario, identifying critical connectivity gaps requiring urgent policy response under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets.