Population Viability Analysis of Rare Carnivores

Abstract

Population viability analysis (PVA) provides quantitative probabilistic frameworks for predicting extinction risk and evaluating management alternatives for small, declining, or fragmented populations of threatened species. This study conducted stochastic PVA using VORTEX v10.5 for six rare European carnivore populations -- Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx, three isolated subpopulations), European wildcat (Felis silvestris), and wolverine (Gulo gulo, southern range margin population) -- parameterised from 12-28 years of individual-based demographic monitoring data (1,284 marked individuals, survival and reproductive histories). Baseline PVA predicted 100-year extinction probability (P100) of > 50% for Iberian lynx without ongoing management (baseline N = 84 adults), 24.8 +/ 8.4% for the most isolated Eurasian lynx subpopulation (N = 42 adults), and < 5% for populations with N > 200 adults. Demographic sensitivity analysis identified adult female survival as the vital rate with the greatest impact on population growth rate (elasticity 0.648 +/- 0.042 across species), followed by juvenile survival (0.284 +/- 0.038). Management scenario PVA compared six intervention strategies: road mortality mitigation, prey augmentation, habitat corridor establishment, supplementary feeding, genetic rescue translocation, and captive breeding support. Corridor establishment enabling dispersal between isolated subpopulations reduced P100 from 24.8% to 4.2% for the Eurasian lynx subpopulation pair modelled, the single most effective intervention. These results identify functional connectivity restoration as the highest-priority management action for European rare carnivore recovery under the EU Large Carnivore Action Plan.