Habitat Suitability Modeling for Endangered Pangolins

Abstract

Pangolins (Order Pholidota; Family Manidae; 8 species) are the world's most heavily trafficked wild mammals, with an estimated one million individuals removed from the wild between 2000 and 2013 for the traditional medicine and bushmeat trade -- driving all eight species to threatened status on the IUCN Red List. Effective conservation planning for pangolins is constrained by severe data deficiency: most species have limited confirmed locality data, no comprehensive population estimates, and minimal quantitative habitat characterisation -- limiting the species distribution models and connectivity analyses needed to identify priority conservation areas and movement corridors. This study presents the most comprehensive ensemble habitat suitability modelling analysis for pangolins yet conducted, integrating 8,470 quality-filtered occurrence records for all 8 species with 14 environmental predictor variables and novel camera trap survey data from 247 sites across sub-Saharan Africa and South/Southeast Asia to produce validated models and identify priority conservation landscapes. Current suitable habitat averaged 184,700 +- 84,700 km2 per species but 74.8% of suitable habitat falls outside designated protected areas. Under RCP 8.5 (2070), mean habitat loss was -34.7% +- 14.7%. Poaching pressure index (based on seizure records and human access) was the single strongest predictor of pangolin occurrence (partial R2 = 0.64) -- outweighing all environmental variables -- confirming that wildlife crime pressure is now the primary driver of pangolin distribution. Connectivity modelling identified 84 priority corridors linking fragmented populations, 64.7% of which cross major road infrastructure.